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FASDA-FOLD-CHANGE(1)	     General Commands Manual	    FASDA-FOLD-CHANGE(1)

NAME
     fasda fold-change - Compute fold-change and P-values from normalized counts

SYNOPSIS
     fasda fold-change [--output file.txt] [--near-exact]\
	 normalized-counts1.tsv  normalized-counts2.tsv \
	 [normalized-counts3.tsv ...]

OPTIONS
     --output file.txt
	    Report  fold-change  and P-values to file.txt instead of the default
	    stdout.

     --near-exact
	    Force calculation of near-exact P-values, rather  than  the  default
	    Mann-Whitney  (Wilcoxon)  for  8  or more replicates.  Be aware that
	    this will take a long time.

DESCRIPTION
     fasda fold-change computes fold-change and P-values for two or more  condi-
     tions.  The input is two or more tab-separated value (TSV) files containing
     normalized  counts  for all conditions.  These files are generally produced
     by fasda normalize which is turn takes its input  from  kallisto  or  fasda
     abundance output.

     The  Mann-Whitney U-test (A.K.A. Wilcoxon rank sum test) is used to compute
     P-values for a minimum of 8 replicates per condition.  Exact  P-values  are
     computed  for  2  to 4 replicates and near-exact P-values for 5 to 7 repli-
     cates (the enormous space of possible count pairs is down-sampled	to  keep
     run time within reason).

     For  each pair of conditions, fasda fold-change reports the mean normalized
     counts for each condition, the standard deviation / mean  counts  for  each
     condition,  the percent agreement across replicates as to whether the fold-
     change is up or down, the fold-change using total counts  for  each  condi-
     tion, and the P-value for this set of counts across the two conditions.

     Feature		     MNC1    MNC2  SD/C1  SD/C2  FC 1-2 log2(FC) P-val
     YPL071C_mRNA	     29.6    31.1    0.3    0.2    1.05    0.07  0.72611
     YLL050C_mRNA	    399.5   543.8    0.2    0.2    1.36    0.44  0.02857
     YMR172W_mRNA	     60.6    83.3    0.2    0.2    1.38    0.46  0.02167
     YOR185C_mRNA	     57.1    56.1    0.3    0.2    0.98   -0.03  0.92562
     YLL032C_mRNA	     33.9    21.6    0.3    0.3    0.64   -0.65  0.14138
     YBR225W_mRNA	     61.4    75.4    0.2    0.2    1.23    0.30  0.11281

     P-values  will  generally	be lower when fold-changes are higher, when mean
     normalized counts are higher and when standard deviation is lower.  We  re-
     port standard deviation divided by mean normalized counts to provide an im-
     mediate  sense  of  how  variable the counts are across replicates for each
     feature.	E.g.  the  actual  standard  deviation	for   condition   1   in
     YPL071C_mRNA (using rounded output) would be 34.4 * 0.4 = 13.76.

Interpreting Results
     P-values  from any differential analysis tool should never be taken too se-
     riously. There are countless uncontrollable biological variables  that  can
     affect the RNA abundance in a cell.  There are also numerous sources of ex-
     perimental  error in sample prep and sequencing that can lead to inaccuracy
     in read counts.  Technical replicates (replicates from the same  biological
     sample)  and  spike-in  controls can reveal some of these technical issues,
     but do not address biological variations.

     Another problem is that many biology experiments use only 3 replicates.  We
     simply cannot draw high confidence from any statistics based on 3 samples.

     P-value calculations typically make the same assumptions about  all  genes.
     In  reality,  a 2-fold change in expression could be hugely significant for
     one gene under certain conditions and completely meaningless for a  differ-
     ent  gene	or different conditions.  Statistical routines have no knowledge
     of the biology that determines this.

     There is huge variability on the computational side as  well.   Well-estab-
     lished  differential  analysis tools commonly report very different sets of
     genes	as	differentially	    expressed.	     Li,      et      al
     (https://doi.org/10.1186/s13059-022-02648-4) reported that 23.71% to 75% of
     the  DEGs	identified  by	DESeq2	were  missed  by edgeR.  In one data set
     tested, DESeq2 and edgeR had only an 8% overlap in the  DEGs  they  identi-
     fied.

     Hence,  simply  assuming that P-values < 0.05 represent significant changes
     while others do not would be foolish.  Rather than try too hard to  produce
     adjusted  P-values  that  you  can take on faith, we provide simple, honest
     statistics and leave it to you to consider them carefully.

     From our preliminary experiments, we have found that P-values between  0.05
     and  0.20	are  often questionable and may warrant a closer look at the raw
     data.  A quick look at the individual read counts	for  each  replicate  in
     these  cases  can be enlightening.  You will usually see a high variance in
     counts across individuals, sometimes with up-regulation in some individuals
     and down-regulation in others.

     For example, consider the following gene, for which Sleuth  reported  a  P-
     value  of	0.0132, while the exact P-value computed by FASDA is 0.116.  The
     kallisto estimated counts show that one replicate was  up-regulated  almost
     4-fold,  another  almost 2-fold, and the third was slightly down-regulated.
     A P-value of 0.01 would not likely  make  anyone  suspect	this  situation.
     0.116, on the other hand, tells us that there is a good chance this is sig-
     nificant,	but  maybe  we	should	take a minute or two to look at the read
     counts and consider the biology behind them.  This  is  a	tiny  investment
     that  will help us better decide whether a costly experimental verification
     is warranted.

		   FASDA		     Sleuth
	     Feature	MNC1	MNC2  FC   1-2	  SC1	 SC2  SFC    SPV
     ENSMUST00000017610  7620.5 16006.7 2.1 0.116  191.4  433.5  2.3 0.0132

     Kallisto estimated counts:

	       R1      R2      R3
     MNC1    5382.16  8567.4 6986.43
     MNC2    21519.9 16196.7 6307.52

     Conversely, Sleuth produced a P-value of  0.12  for  the  following,  which
     looks like a slam-dunk given the counts.

		   FASDA		     Sleuth
	     Feature	MNC1	MNC2  FC   1-2	  SC1	 SC2  SFC    SPV
     ENSMUST00000036928  1165.0  4064.3 3.5 0.024   70.5  300.4  4.3 0.1203

	       R1      R2      R3
     MNC1    1045.41 942.707 1220.02
     MNC2    2835.7  4167.81 3718.39

     The  bottom  line	is, while the 0.05 rule is a good one mathematically, we
     cannot count on experimental and computational results reflecting the biol-
     ogy with that much accuracy.  Give the results of any differential analysis
     a generous margin of error, and examine the data more closely for	anything
     within that margin.

FILES
     abundance.tsv: Input with normalized counts for all replicates of 1 condition
     file.txt: Output containing fold-change and P-values

SEE ALSO
     fasda-abundance(1), fasda-normalize(1)

BUGS
     Please  report  bugs to the author and send patches in unified diff format.
     (man diff for more information)

AUTHOR
     J. Bacon

							    FASDA-FOLD-CHANGE(1)

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